Seeds
1: Villanova, Florida, Arizona, Syracuse
2: Wichita St., Wisconsin, San Diego St., Kansas
3: Michigan, Creighton, Virginia, Duke
4: Iowa St., Cincinnati, Saint Louis, Michigan St.
5: Louisville, North Carolina, Massachusetts, Oklahoma
6: Connecticut, Gonzaga, Ohio St., VCU
7: George Washington, New Mexico, Pittsburgh, Texas
8: Memphis, Harvard, UCLA, Oregon
9: Kentucky, Stephen F. Austin, Baylor, SMU
10: Southern Miss, Arizona St., Colorado, Toledo
11: Iowa, Xavier, Providence, Nebraska
12: Oklahoma St., Saint Joseph’s, (Dayton/Florida. St), North Dakota St.
13: (Green Bay/Kansas St.), Louisiana Tech, Manhattan, North Carolina Central
14: Delaware, Georgia St., Boston University, New Mexico St.
15: Mercer, UC Irvine, Eastern Kentucky, Stony Brook
16: Milwaukee, Wofford, (Weber St./Coastal Carolina), (Mount St. Mary’s/Texas Southern)
Last Four In: Dayton, Florida St., Green Bay, Kansas St.
First Four Out: Stanford, BYU, St. John’s Missouri, Arkansas
Next Four Out: California, Tennessee, Minnesota, Clemson
2 comments
Wichita State a 2 seed? I am no fan of Wichita State, but you are on crack if you think that they will be on the 2 line. Then again, you have Cuse on the 1 line, so you might be on crack after all.
I’m really excited. I’ve never had a heckler before. Where should I begin?
First, this is a fully statistical model. At no point did I say that I am trying to replicate what the committee will do. I am simply stating what they SHOULD do. I don’t care if any of this is correct. It’s a baseline model. It takes about 90 seconds to update the spreadsheet each morning. If people are pouring tons of time into something like this, and can’t provide better results, they need to re-evaluate what they are doing.
Second, if you look at the spreadsheet (which you clearly didn’t) and actually look at the ratings (which you clearly didn’t), you’d see that Syracuse and Wichita St. are separated by .004 ratings points. Not exactly definitive. Also, Syracuse still has games to play. If they lose in the ACC tournament, they will definitely fall behind Wichita St. in my ratings. If they win the ACC tournament, I’m actually pretty comfortable in saying they have a better resume than Wichita St. I don’t really care if they get a 1 or a 2 seed, however.
When all of the conference tournaments are over, Florida/Arizona/Villanova/Wichita St. will likely be the four one seeds in the committees eyes and in the EPW. Not quite the miscarriage of justice you are making it out to be.
I’ll make sure to hit you back at thisblogsucks@gmail.com on Selection Sunday. Thanks for commenting. Don’t be afraid to subscribe to the RSS feed!