I have a confession to make. I am an addict. I am completely addicted to Layne Vashro’s NCAA Prospect Comparison Tool at Nylon Calculus. I spent hours yesterday going through just about every major prospect and bust for the past 20 years. I find it all fascinating, with the perfect amount of hilarious sprinkled in. There’s an overview section at the bottom of the link to the tool, for those wondering what it is. For a brief synopsis, this tool allows you to compare college basketball player seasons for all prospects since 1990, using different weights for different stats. There are 26 categories, from points to eFG% to strength of schedule. I’ve tweaked them to what I like, but there is no right answer. Here are the weights I’m using. If a stat isn’t shown, it’s weight is zero.
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So, until I get sick of doing this. I’m going to go back and look through some draft classes and look for interesting comps or things I just simply find funny.
For example, using my weights and taking a look at 2007 #2 pick Kevin Durant, his top-5 comp list is pretty interesting.
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That’s right, everyone. Coming out of college, Kevin Durant was the black Keith Van Horn. You know we all thought it. No one had the guts to say it. But really, is that such a crazy comparison? We know that Durant was a better athlete. That athleticism allowed Durant to reach offensive heights that KVH couldn’t dream of. This is a table of their rate stats through their first four NBA seasons. Obviously, it’s not the best comparison due to Durant entering the league after his freshman year while KVH was a senior, but I think it works. They were both high usage players. Van Horn was a slightly better rebounder, while Durant’s assist rate was a bit higher. They had similar steal and block rates, with KVH turning it over a touch more. I’m rolling with this from now on. When people talk about this draft and discuss the Oden/Durant comparison, just remember…Kevin Durant was the athletic Keith Van Horn.
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