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March 16, 2014 Basketball # , , , , , , ,

The EPW Bracket – FINAL

The wait is finally over. Here is the EPW bracket that will be submitted to Bracket Matrix, assuming Florida and Michigan St. are victorious.

Spreadsheet

The #1 seeds are Florida (South), Arizona (West), Villanova (East) and Wichita St. (Midwest). Their pods are Orlando, San Diego, Buffalo and St. Louis.

The #2 seeds are Virginia (East), Syracuse (Midwest), Wisconsin (South) and Iowa St. (West). Their pods are Raleigh, Buffalo, Milwaukee and St. Louis.

The #3 seeds are Michigan (Midwest), Kansas (South), San Diego St. (West) and Michigan St. (East). Their pods are Milwaukee, San Antonio, Spokane and Orlando.

Finally, the #4 seeds are Creighton (Midwest), Duke (South), Louisville (East) and Cincinnati (West). Their pods are San Antonio, Raleigh, Spokane and San Diego.

Final Bracket - Top 16

 

 

 

 

 

#5 seeds: Connecticut (Midwest), UCLA (South), New Mexico (East) and Saint Louis (West)

#6 seeds: Gonzaga (Midwest, Massachusetts (South), Pittsburgh (West) and VCU (East). *Notes, Ohio St. and North Carolina both forced down a seed line. VCU jumps two spots.

#7 seeds: Ohio St. (West), North Carolina (South), Oklahoma (East) and George Washington (Midwest)

#8 seeds: Kentucky (East), Harvard (South), Texas (Midwest) and Providence (West)

Final Bracket - Top 32

 

 

 

 

 

#9 seeds: Baylor (West), Oregon (Midwest), Memphis (South) and Saint Joseph’s (East)

#10 seeds: STEPHEN FULLER AUSTIN (Memphis), Colorado (East), Southern Miss (West) and Arizona St. (Midwest)

#11 seeds: Xavier (South), SMU (West), Oklahoma St. (Midwest) and North Dakota St. (East)

#12 seeds: Florida St. (Midwest), Toledo (South), Stanford/Green Bay (East), Nebraska/BYU (West)

#13 seeds: Manhattan (Midwest), North Carolina Central (East), Delaware (West) and New Mexico St. (South)

#14 seeds: Western Michigan (West), Mercer (South), Tulsa (East), Eastern Kentucky (Midwest)

#15 seeds: Louisiana Lafayette (Midwest), Milwaukee (East), American (South), Wofford (West)

#16 seeds: Weber St. (West), Albany (South), Coastal Carolina/Mount St. Mary’s (East), Texas Southern/Cal Poly (Midwest)

Final Bracket - Complete

 

 

 

 

 

Last Four In: Stanford, Green Bay, Nebraska, BYU

First Four Out: Dayton, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana Tech

Next Four Out: Kansas St., North Carolina St., Tennessee, Minnesota

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February 28, 2014 Basketball # , ,

EPW: College Basketball Rankings through February 27

I don’t have time this morning to do a blog post, but I wanted to get this posted as I am getting the EPW rankings added to Bracket Matrix. I think the rankings will serve as a great baseline for this exercise. If you can’t beat this method, which is very simple and can be completely replicated by anyone, then you probably should not be covering college basketball. Link to the full document is here.

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February 13, 2014 Basketball # , , , , , ,

EPW: College Basketball Rankings through February 12

It’s been a long time. I shouldn’t have left you. Without some dope rankings to step to.

Sorry for being slack on updating these rankings. Crappy weather in North Carolina, coupled with yesterday being the anniversary of leaving my mother’s womb, has left me less interested in doing any writing. But today is a new day. And that new day brings a new #1 team to the EPW rankings.

Fresh off last night’s victory in Pittsburgh, the Syracuse Orange are now the projected #1 team at the end of the regular season. Not that this development is terribly shocking. Being undefeated tends to correlate strongly with being highly ranked. But Syracuse had not been able to jump ahead of Arizona based on their weaker schedule. Oddly enough, the schedule strength is much closed than I expected. The to-date SOS for ‘Cuse is .787, with Arizona sitting at .777. That margin shrinks in the end of season numbers.

The most interesting thing I have noticed in the last week is that the rankings have normalized a bit. There hasn’t been a ton of movement since my last update. Saint Louis had the biggest jump of the Top 25 teams, climbing 6 spots to #11. Bracket Matrix has Saint Louis slotted at #17. The real results will look more like Bracket Matrix, if I had to guess, as the public perception doesn’t seem to be matching the actual results. Maybe that will change if they pick up a win at VCU on March 1, but I think it’s a much more likely scenario that the Billikens will be underseeded come tourney time.

top40 feb12

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February 4, 2014 Basketball # , , , , ,

EPW: College Basketball Rankings through February 3

I was hoping to get this post up yesterday, but life intervened in the form of a root canal and a tooth extraction, so college basketball took a backseat to Vicodin and doing nothing. The ranking landscape has changed since I last took a look at it, with the biggest story being Arizona picking up their first loss of the season at Cal. The data I’m using for comparison today are the consensus rankings from Bracket Matrix. I took the 41 rankings that were updated before yesterday’s games from Bracket Matrix and averaged those results. Feel free to mentally adjust Iowa St. and Oklahoma St. based on last night’s game. The rest is should all be valid. The teams are sorted in order of their rank at Bracket Matrix.

top4 - feb4

 

 

Arizona, Syracuse and Wichita St. all line up perfectly, with the only miss in the Bracket Matrix #1 seeds being Florida. While I’m not surprised that there’s disagreement among the top 4 teams, I am surprised that Florida is the team that’s causing it. EPW has them at #5, so it’s not outlandish, but they just aren’t the team I would expect to be there, especially with the way Lunardi has been touting Kansas. The only other thing of note from this graphic is that even though Arizona dropped behind Syracuse in the current rankings, they are still projected to finish in the top spot at season’s end.

5-8 feb4

 

 

 

I have documented my thoughts on Kansas before, so I’m not going to touch on that here. Villanova is slowly becoming the team I am most interested in reading about each morning. They’ve played a difficult schedule, only have two losses, yet don’t seem to be getting much discussion for a potential #1 seed. Of the 41 brackets that make up the consensus, only eight have the Wildcats on the top line. Maybe that will change if they can avenge the Creighton loss, but if that’s the only game they lose for the rest of the regular season, I believe they are in the driver’s seat for a #1 seed. I expect that I am in the minority with that opinion, but I stand by it.

The other big point coming from these four teams is San Diego St.’s Pyth rating. Right now, it is lower than the other projected #2 seeds. Looming as a potential 7-seed, both from Bracket Matrix and the EPW numbers, is Ohio St. The Buckeyes’ Pyth rating today: .897. Much higher than the other projected #7 seeds. While no #2 seed would be excited to play Ohio St. in the 2nd round, that match-up could be disastrous for SDST. Even if SDST has a Semi-Home game based on location of that game, KenPom sets the line at 1.5. This is a very specific scenario, but it’s the type of game that garners “SHOCKED” and “UPSET” headlines on ESPN after it happens.

The next few seeds all line up pretty well. I’ve already touched on Kentucky. They’re over-seeded with the Bracket Matrix numbers, as well. Oklahoma St. has a big disparity in the rankings, but that is mostly due to last night’s loss not being factored into their seedings. As always, here is the EPW Top 40. Louisiana Tech is only projected in 2 of the 41 consensus bracket’s, hence they’re rank of “X”.

top40 feb4

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