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DraftKings Daily Fantasy Basketball Projections – February 9, 2015

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The following daily fantasy basketball projections are created using a method similar to Basketball Reference’s Simple Projection System. I have a quick walkthrough of my process here. If you have any questions, please feel to ask here, via email (jengl867 AT gmail DOT com) or on Twitter (@JoshEngleman).

Quick note: when it comes to the Best Plays/Best Values, these are all of the guys that currently are in my shortlist for tonight. I’m literally listing everyone that I will potentially roster. If they aren’t listed in those two places, then I won’t be rostering them. Obviously this changes as more news comes about injuries, but this is truly how it looks right now for me.

If you are trying to up your DFS game, I highly recommend checking out Fantasy Cruncher. It really is an amazing tool. It provides a great blueprint, plus it helps keep you organized.

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If you are looking to sign-up at DraftKings, please do so through this link.

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***Updated at 12:45 PM. Added Dwyane Wade, removed Jason Smith***

***Updated at 3:05 PM. Added DeMarre Carroll, Alexis Ajinca and Omer Asik. Removed Ryan Anderson, Anthony Davis, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut*** 

Point Guards

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Russell Westbrook PG $11200 36.0 43.5 3.9 13.9% 2.0%
Stephen Curry PG $10400 29.3 35.3 3.4 3.8% 0.2%
Chris Paul PG $9100 36.7 44.0 4.8 44.0% 13.7%
John Wall PG $8900 35.2 38.5 4.3 23.5% 3.7%
Tyreke Evans PG $7900 38.1 37.5 4.7 42.0% 15.9%
Ty Lawson PG $7800 34.4 34.0 4.4 26.5% 5.4%
Jeff Teague PG $7800 31.8 30.3 3.9 16.4% 3.2%
Michael Carter-Williams PG $7800 29.8 34.3 4.4 29.6% 7.8%
Brandon Knight PG $7400 35.8 33.4 4.5 32.9% 8.9%
Jarrett Jack PG $6800 38.2 29.8 4.4 32.3% 11.5%
Ricky Rubio PG $5700 27.2 26.4 4.6 37.7% 12.5%
Langston Galloway PG $5600 32.8 24.7 4.4 33.2% 11.9%
Elfrid Payton PG $5400 32.3 26.9 5.0 49.7% 25.1%
Deron Williams PG $5100 28.1 26.3 5.1 54.4% 26.3%
George Hill PG $5000 27.1 21.3 4.3 32.5% 14.3%
Mo Williams PG $5000 22.3 18.6 3.7 16.6% 4.2%
Tony Parker PG $4900 29.2 26.6 5.4 60.6% 35.9%
Trey Burke PG $4800 30.7 24.1 5.0 50.7% 24.1%
J.J. Barea PG $4600 29.0 25.8 5.6 62.6% 41.6%
Devin Harris PG $4500 26.9 22.8 5.1 51.6% 31.5%
Mario Chalmers PG $4500 26.8 18.9 4.2 27.7% 9.0%
Jose Calderon PG $4400 28.8 20.8 4.7 42.5% 19.3%
Jerryd Bayless PG $4000 20.5 16.8 4.2 28.3% 9.9%
C.J. Watson PG $3500 23.7 18.3 5.2 54.9% 34.3%
Dante Exum PG $3300 34.0 21.5 6.5 70.4% 57.1%
Norris Cole PG $3200 21.8 13.2 4.1 28.8% 11.5%
Austin Rivers PG $3000 26.0 18.7 6.2 69.7% 53.7%
Shabazz Napier PG $3000 20.8 14.5 4.8 46.0% 24.3%

As per usual, PG is absolutely loaded. I like Chris Paul the most of the top shelf bunch, but John Wall is super close. Tyreke Evans looks really good, but I wish he was still a SG. Brandon Knight has been really good lately and is someone that might slip through the cracks. If you need to spend a little less here, you can either flip a coin on the Dallas PGs (I prefer Harris) or punt with Exum or Rivers.

Best Plays (>=$5000): Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, John Wall, Tyreke Evans, Jeff Teague, Brandon Knight, Langston Galloway, George Hill

Avoid:

Best Value (<$5000): Trey Burke, Jose Barea, Devin Harris, Dante Exum, Austin Rivers

 

Shooting Guards

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Klay Thompson SG $8100 29.4 26.2 3.2 4.3% 0.4%
Monta Ellis SG $7700 36.6 34.8 4.5 33.6% 9.7%
Dwyane Wade SG $7000 32.8 32.7 4.7 37.9% 10.7%
Victor Oladipo SG $6600 34.8 30.4 4.6 37.3% 12.4%
Khris Middleton SG $6300 33.2 26.4 4.2 27.6% 9.1%
Kevin Martin SG $5800 35.8 29.2 5.0 51.0% 28.4%
Eric Gordon SG $5700 35.5 29.9 5.2 56.4% 30.7%
Bradley Beal SG $5600 37.6 31.6 5.6 67.0% 40.2%
Joe Johnson SG $5400 37.0 28.3 5.2 55.2% 33.5%
Jamal Crawford SG $5200 35.1 31.0 6.0 71.2% 48.9%
Arron Afflalo SG $5200 29.5 22.5 4.3 32.8% 13.4%
Kyle Korver SG $5000 34.0 24.2 4.8 46.2% 23.5%
Danny Green SG $4600 24.0 18.5 4.0 25.9% 9.6%
Manu Ginobili SG $4600 23.1 22.2 4.8 46.1% 24.4%
O.J. Mayo SG $4500 25.1 20.4 4.5 38.2% 17.5%
Tim Hardaway Jr. SG $4400 22.2 14.6 3.3 9.8% 2.0%
Rodney Stuckey SG $4300 26.6 21.5 5.0 50.1% 29.3%
Dion Waiters SG $4200 25.8 20.5 4.9 47.4% 27.2%
Kent Bazemore SG $3500 25.8 19.6 5.6 60.3% 42.9%
Alan Anderson SG $3200 24.7 14.9 4.7 43.8% 26.6%
Elijah Millsap SG $3200 33.6 24.9 7.8 86.8% 76.2%
Quincy Pondexter SG $3000 30.8 19.1 6.4 71.2% 56.0%

My numbers don’t show it, but I think Klay Thompson looks great, even with the potential for a blowout. If he plays, Bradley Beal looks like he’s incredibly under-priced. For value, Elijah Millsap is probably the best of the bunch, just due to the amount of minutes he should play, but the two Spurs have salaries that bring them in to play.

Best Plays (>=$5000): Klay Thompson, Monta Ellis, Dwyane Wade, Victor Oladipo, Khris Middleton, Kevin Martin, Eric Gordon, Bradley Beal, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Kyle Korver

Avoid:

Best Value (<$5000): Manu Ginobili, Danny Green, Dion Waiters, Kent Bazemore, Elijah Millsap, Quincy Pondexter

 

Small Forwards

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Kevin Durant SF $10000 36.9 43.3 4.3 25.0% 4.6%
Carmelo Anthony SF $8800 35.6 35.7 4.1 12.8% 1.0%
Gordon Hayward SF $7900 37.2 31.6 4.0 17.8% 3.2%
Kawhi Leonard SF $7700 35.7 31.7 4.1 23.0% 5.8%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SF $6600 34.7 29.1 4.4 32.0% 10.2%
Andrew Wiggins SF $6300 36.9 28.9 4.6 38.3% 15.5%
Tobias Harris SF $6300 39.2 34.4 5.5 62.5% 35.9%
Chandler Parsons SF $6000 35.1 29.0 4.8 45.4% 21.6%
Wilson Chandler SF $5200 28.1 23.4 4.5 35.7% 13.7%
Luol Deng SF $5000 34.2 25.9 5.2 54.7% 28.7%
DeMarre Carroll SF $4600 33.0 24.2 5.3 56.1% 33.1%
Al-Farouq Aminu SF $4500 25.9 21.2 4.7 43.7% 24.5%
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute SF $4500 26.8 19.9 4.4 37.3% 18.6%
C.J. Miles SF $4500 28.2 23.6 5.3 55.1% 35.1%
Harrison Barnes SF $4400 24.9 18.2 4.1 24.9% 7.2%
Paul Pierce SF $4400 25.5 23.8 5.4 59.4% 36.0%
Hollis Thompson SF $4400 27.8 19.7 4.5 38.6% 19.9%
K.J. McDaniels SF $4000 21.2 18.7 4.7 40.8% 16.8%
Jared Dudley SF $4000 23.8 16.4 4.1 30.4% 14.0%
Matt Barnes SF $3900 33.1 25.3 6.5 77.2% 59.6%
Danilo Gallinari SF $3600 24.3 21.0 5.8 66.2% 46.6%
Andre Iguodala SF $3500 24.5 20.5 5.9 70.2% 46.8%
Solomon Hill SF $3300 23.2 15.8 4.8 46.3% 29.0%
Dante Cunningham SF $3000 33.2 23.4 7.8 86.6% 76.1%
Bojan Bogdanovic SF $3000 23.4 14.4 4.8 46.9% 30.8%

At $10k, I think Kevin Durant looks great. If you don’t want to pay up for Durant, Tobias Harris looks really good at $6300. In the huge group of sub-$5k guys, I like Matt Barnes the most, although Gallinari has the biggest upside relative to price.

Best Plays (>=$5000): Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Gordon Hayward, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Tobias Harris, Andrew Wiggins, Chandler Parsons, Luol Deng

Avoid:

Best Value (<$5000): DeMarre Carroll, C.J. Miles, Al-Farouq Aminu, Hollis Thompson, Harrison Barnes, Matt Barnes, Danilo Gallinari

 

Power Forwards

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Paul Millsap PF $7800 34.2 35.6 4.6 35.2% 10.4%
Draymond Green PF $7500 28.8 27.2 3.6 12.4% 2.3%
Tim Duncan PF $7400 28.9 31.6 4.3 21.7% 3.2%
Chris Bosh PF $7300 34.8 30.5 4.2 23.7% 5.6%
Derrick Favors PF $7200 32.7 31.4 4.4 30.0% 8.9%
Serge Ibaka PF $6600 35.7 32.6 4.9 48.2% 23.6%
David West PF $6300 30.6 29.0 4.6 36.8% 11.6%
Dirk Nowitzki PF $6200 30.5 31.5 5.1 52.7% 23.8%
Robert Covington PF $6100 28.5 29.1 4.8 44.1% 21.7%
Thaddeus Young PF $6000 36.3 32.3 5.4 60.5% 33.7%
Kenneth Faried PF $5800 30.2 30.7 5.3 57.3% 32.8%
John Henson PF $5800 21.2 21.2 3.7 10.8% 1.6%
David Lee PF $4800 22.4 23.2 4.8 44.5% 17.4%
Nene Hilario PF $4600 27.2 25.3 5.5 62.4% 38.0%
Kris Humphries PF $4400 23.5 21.6 4.9 47.8% 25.4%
Marreese Speights PF $3600 20.2 21.0 5.8 65.2% 46.6%
Lance Thomas PF $3300 24.6 14.7 4.4 38.8% 21.3%
Luis Scola PF $3200 20.6 19.1 6.0 67.7% 49.3%
Channing Frye PF $3000 21.3 15.7 5.2 56.3% 31.3%

It’s Anthony Davis here, and it’s not particularly close. I’d love to put him with Draymond Green tonight, but I’m not sure I’ll be able to make the salaries work. I’m not particularly fond of any value plays, so the most likely scenario for me is either Derrick Favors, David West or Kenneth Faried.

Best Plays (>=$5000): Anthony Davis, Draymond Green, Chris Bosh, Derrick Favors, David West, Robert Covington, Thaddeus Young, Kenneth Faried, Ryan Anderson

Avoid:

Best Value (<$5000): Kris Humphries

 

Centers

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Nikola Vucevic C $8500 34.3 35.0 4.1 20.1% 3.8%
Hassan Whiteside C $7900 29.3 31.8 4.0 26.0% 9.7%
Al Horford C $7900 33.0 33.5 4.2 25.8% 6.6%
DeAndre Jordan C $7500 36.4 34.2 4.6 37.4% 14.9%
Tyson Chandler C $6900 32.3 28.8 4.2 25.8% 7.6%
Brook Lopez C $6500 32.8 32.6 5.0 50.2% 26.7%
Enes Kanter C $5900 29.7 26.0 4.4 32.7% 11.5%
Roy Hibbert C $5600 31.5 29.8 5.3 56.5% 36.2%
Gorgui Dieng C $5400 21.1 20.3 3.8 15.4% 3.3%
Nerlens Noel C $5400 28.6 27.6 5.1 53.3% 26.8%
Jason Smith C $5200 26.2 19.0 3.7 15.2% 3.7%
Marcin Gortat C $5000 28.7 26.3 5.3 56.8% 30.6%
Rudy Gobert C $4900 22.5 21.5 4.4 36.1% 17.4%
Mason Plumlee C $4700 24.7 22.4 4.8 44.4% 23.0%
Nikola Pekovic C $4600 26.9 24.8 5.4 59.8% 34.7%
Jusuf Nurkic C $4500 21.4 23.8 5.3 57.6% 32.8%
Omer Asik C $4200 33.7 28.9 6.9 82.1% 66.5%
Alexis Ajinca C $3300 32.8 31.2 9.5 86.8% 80.7%
Spencer Hawes C $3000 35.4 33.8 11.3 94.5% 91.0%
Kendrick Perkins C $3000 24.6 16.1 5.4 56.1% 38.9%

If Hassan Whiteside is a go, I love him here. If not, I’ll either grab Brook Lopez/Roy Hibbert. If I need to totally punt, Spencer Hawes is a no-brainer.

Best Plays (>=$5000): Hassan Whiteside, Al Horford, Tyson Chandler, Brook Lopez, Enes Kanter, Roy Hibbert, Nerlens Noel, Jason Smith, Marcin Gortat

Avoid:

Best Value (<$5000): Andrew Bogut, Jusuf Nurkic, Omer Asik, Alexis Ajinca, Spencer Hawes, Kendrick Perkins

 

Utility

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Russell Westbrook PG $11200 36.0 43.5 3.9 13.9% 2.0%
Stephen Curry PG $10400 29.3 35.3 3.4 3.8% 0.2%
Kevin Durant SF $10000 36.9 43.3 4.3 25.0% 4.6%
Chris Paul PG $9100 36.7 44.0 4.8 44.0% 13.7%
John Wall PG $8900 35.2 38.5 4.3 23.5% 3.7%
Carmelo Anthony SF $8800 35.6 35.7 4.1 12.8% 1.0%
Nikola Vucevic C $8500 34.3 35.0 4.1 20.1% 3.8%
Klay Thompson SG $8100 29.4 26.2 3.2 4.3% 0.4%
Tyreke Evans PG $7900 38.1 37.5 4.7 42.0% 15.9%
Al Horford C $7900 33.0 33.5 4.2 25.8% 6.6%
Gordon Hayward SF $7900 37.2 31.6 4.0 17.8% 3.2%
Hassan Whiteside C $7900 29.3 31.8 4.0 26.0% 9.7%
Ty Lawson PG $7800 34.4 34.0 4.4 26.5% 5.4%
Michael Carter-Williams PG $7800 29.8 34.3 4.4 29.6% 7.8%
Jeff Teague PG $7800 31.8 30.3 3.9 16.4% 3.2%
Paul Millsap PF $7800 34.2 35.6 4.6 35.2% 10.4%
Kawhi Leonard SF $7700 35.7 31.7 4.1 23.0% 5.8%
Monta Ellis SG $7700 36.6 34.8 4.5 33.6% 9.7%
Draymond Green PF $7500 28.8 27.2 3.6 12.4% 2.3%
DeAndre Jordan C $7500 36.4 34.2 4.6 37.4% 14.9%
Brandon Knight PG $7400 35.8 33.4 4.5 32.9% 8.9%
Tim Duncan PF $7400 28.9 31.6 4.3 21.7% 3.2%
Chris Bosh PF $7300 34.8 30.5 4.2 23.7% 5.6%
Derrick Favors PF $7200 32.7 31.4 4.4 30.0% 8.9%
Dwyane Wade SG $7000 32.8 32.7 4.7 37.9% 10.7%
Tyson Chandler C $6900 32.3 28.8 4.2 25.8% 7.6%
Jarrett Jack PG $6800 38.2 29.8 4.4 32.3% 11.5%
Serge Ibaka PF $6600 35.7 32.6 4.9 48.2% 23.6%
Victor Oladipo SG $6600 34.8 30.4 4.6 37.3% 12.4%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SF $6600 34.7 29.1 4.4 32.0% 10.2%
Brook Lopez C $6500 32.8 32.6 5.0 50.2% 26.7%
Tobias Harris SF $6300 39.2 34.4 5.5 62.5% 35.9%
David West PF $6300 30.6 29.0 4.6 36.8% 11.6%
Andrew Wiggins SF $6300 36.9 28.9 4.6 38.3% 15.5%
Khris Middleton SG $6300 33.2 26.4 4.2 27.6% 9.1%
Dirk Nowitzki PF $6200 30.5 31.5 5.1 52.7% 23.8%
Robert Covington PF $6100 28.5 29.1 4.8 44.1% 21.7%
Chandler Parsons SF $6000 35.1 29.0 4.8 45.4% 21.6%
Thaddeus Young PF $6000 36.3 32.3 5.4 60.5% 33.7%
Enes Kanter C $5900 29.7 26.0 4.4 32.7% 11.5%
John Henson PF $5800 21.2 21.2 3.7 10.8% 1.6%
Kenneth Faried PF $5800 30.2 30.7 5.3 57.3% 32.8%
Kevin Martin SG $5800 35.8 29.2 5.0 51.0% 28.4%
Eric Gordon SG $5700 35.5 29.9 5.2 56.4% 30.7%
Ricky Rubio PG $5700 27.2 26.4 4.6 37.7% 12.5%
Langston Galloway PG $5600 32.8 24.7 4.4 33.2% 11.9%
Roy Hibbert C $5600 31.5 29.8 5.3 56.5% 36.2%
Bradley Beal SG $5600 37.6 31.6 5.6 67.0% 40.2%
Nerlens Noel C $5400 28.6 27.6 5.1 53.3% 26.8%
Joe Johnson SG $5400 37.0 28.3 5.2 55.2% 33.5%
Gorgui Dieng C $5400 21.1 20.3 3.8 15.4% 3.3%
Elfrid Payton PG $5400 32.3 26.9 5.0 49.7% 25.1%
Wilson Chandler SF $5200 28.1 23.4 4.5 35.7% 13.7%
Arron Afflalo SG $5200 29.5 22.5 4.3 32.8% 13.4%
Jamal Crawford SG $5200 35.1 31.0 6.0 71.2% 48.9%
Jason Smith C $5200 26.2 19.0 3.7 15.2% 3.7%
Deron Williams PG $5100 28.1 26.3 5.1 54.4% 26.3%
George Hill PG $5000 27.1 21.3 4.3 32.5% 14.3%
Kyle Korver SG $5000 34.0 24.2 4.8 46.2% 23.5%
Marcin Gortat C $5000 28.7 26.3 5.3 56.8% 30.6%
Luol Deng SF $5000 34.2 25.9 5.2 54.7% 28.7%
Mo Williams PG $5000 22.3 18.6 3.7 16.6% 4.2%
Rudy Gobert C $4900 22.5 21.5 4.4 36.1% 17.4%
Tony Parker PG $4900 29.2 26.6 5.4 60.6% 35.9%
David Lee PF $4800 22.4 23.2 4.8 44.5% 17.4%
Trey Burke PG $4800 30.7 24.1 5.0 50.7% 24.1%
Mason Plumlee C $4700 24.7 22.4 4.8 44.4% 23.0%
J.J. Barea PG $4600 29.0 25.8 5.6 62.6% 41.6%
DeMarre Carroll SF $4600 33.0 24.2 5.3 56.1% 33.1%
Nikola Pekovic C $4600 26.9 24.8 5.4 59.8% 34.7%
Nene Hilario PF $4600 27.2 25.3 5.5 62.4% 38.0%
Manu Ginobili SG $4600 23.1 22.2 4.8 46.1% 24.4%
Danny Green SG $4600 24.0 18.5 4.0 25.9% 9.6%
C.J. Miles SF $4500 28.2 23.6 5.3 55.1% 35.1%
Al-Farouq Aminu SF $4500 25.9 21.2 4.7 43.7% 24.5%
Jusuf Nurkic C $4500 21.4 23.8 5.3 57.6% 32.8%
Mario Chalmers PG $4500 26.8 18.9 4.2 27.7% 9.0%
Devin Harris PG $4500 26.9 22.8 5.1 51.6% 31.5%
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute SF $4500 26.8 19.9 4.4 37.3% 18.6%
O.J. Mayo SG $4500 25.1 20.4 4.5 38.2% 17.5%
Harrison Barnes SF $4400 24.9 18.2 4.1 24.9% 7.2%
Tim Hardaway Jr. SG $4400 22.2 14.6 3.3 9.8% 2.0%
Hollis Thompson SF $4400 27.8 19.7 4.5 38.6% 19.9%
Jose Calderon PG $4400 28.8 20.8 4.7 42.5% 19.3%
Kris Humphries PF $4400 23.5 21.6 4.9 47.8% 25.4%
Paul Pierce SF $4400 25.5 23.8 5.4 59.4% 36.0%
Rodney Stuckey SG $4300 26.6 21.5 5.0 50.1% 29.3%
Omer Asik C $4200 33.7 28.9 6.9 82.1% 66.5%
Dion Waiters SG $4200 25.8 20.5 4.9 47.4% 27.2%
Jared Dudley SF $4000 23.8 16.4 4.1 30.4% 14.0%
K.J. McDaniels SF $4000 21.2 18.7 4.7 40.8% 16.8%
Jerryd Bayless PG $4000 20.5 16.8 4.2 28.3% 9.9%
Matt Barnes SF $3900 33.1 25.3 6.5 77.2% 59.6%
Marreese Speights PF $3600 20.2 21.0 5.8 65.2% 46.6%
Danilo Gallinari SF $3600 24.3 21.0 5.8 66.2% 46.6%
Andre Iguodala SF $3500 24.5 20.5 5.9 70.2% 46.8%
Kent Bazemore SG $3500 25.8 19.6 5.6 60.3% 42.9%
C.J. Watson PG $3500 23.7 18.3 5.2 54.9% 34.3%
Dante Exum PG $3300 34.0 21.5 6.5 70.4% 57.1%
Alexis Ajinca C $3300 32.8 31.2 9.5 86.8% 80.7%
Solomon Hill SF $3300 23.2 15.8 4.8 46.3% 29.0%
Lance Thomas PF $3300 24.6 14.7 4.4 38.8% 21.3%
Alan Anderson SG $3200 24.7 14.9 4.7 43.8% 26.6%
Norris Cole PG $3200 21.8 13.2 4.1 28.8% 11.5%
Elijah Millsap SG $3200 33.6 24.9 7.8 86.8% 76.2%
Luis Scola PF $3200 20.6 19.1 6.0 67.7% 49.3%
Shabazz Napier PG $3000 20.8 14.5 4.8 46.0% 24.3%
Austin Rivers PG $3000 26.0 18.7 6.2 69.7% 53.7%
Spencer Hawes C $3000 35.4 33.8 11.3 94.5% 91.0%
Channing Frye PF $3000 21.3 15.7 5.2 56.3% 31.3%
Dante Cunningham SF $3000 33.2 23.4 7.8 86.6% 76.1%
Bojan Bogdanovic SF $3000 23.4 14.4 4.8 46.9% 30.8%
Quincy Pondexter SG $3000 30.8 19.1 6.4 71.2% 56.0%
Kendrick Perkins C $3000 24.6 16.1 5.4 56.1% 38.9%
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