Nothing like doing my first post of projections on a 2-game set, with the Spurs sitting half of their team. I’m sure the accuracy will be through the roof. I’m going to try to put out some sort of FAQ this weekend to answer any questions. Cliff notes versions for tonight. I have a set of NBA projections for fantasy points per possession. I translate those projections into a score for that particular game. I also run each player’s numbers through a sim to estimate the chances of hitting 5X and 6X value. All of my projections are using DraftKings scoring. The projections below are updated as of 4:30pm. If I make any changes, I will make a note in that particular section. I hope this can be an asset to the daily fantasy community.
Tony Parker seems like the clear top option at PG, but Popovich terrifies me. I have him projected for 37 minutes, since half of the team isn’t playing, but if you told me he only played 25 minutes, I would totally believe you. Cory Joseph and Jameer Nelson both look great. Joseph has played ~15 minutes per night, and I fully expect that to jump up with the Spurs roster crunch.
***Updated 6:39PM w/ Patrick Beverley news***
| Name | Pos | Salary | MPG | DK | DK/$1k | 5X% | 6X% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | PG | $8000 | 35.1 | 31.6 | 4.0 | 19.1% | 4.5% |
| Tony Parker | PG | $7000 | 36.9 | 34.9 | 5.0 | 48.5% | 22.5% |
| Devin Harris | PG | $5200 | 27.7 | 20.7 | 4.0 | 17.2% | 2.7% |
| Jameer Nelson | PG | $3600 | 25.7 | 17.5 | 4.9 | 49.0% | 24.0% |
| Isaiah Canaan | PG | $3000 | 33.0 | 21.2 | 7.1 | 79.2% | 66.1% |
| Cory Joseph | PG | $3000 | 26.1 | 17.5 | 5.8 | 68.3% | 47.8% |
| Steve Blake | PG | $3000 | 21.1 | 10.7 | 3.6 | 10.0% | 1.8% |
I would assume Harden’s ownership numbers will be through the roof. He looks solid tonight, but nothing overwhelming. Danny Green looks like an excellent option. Monta Ellis looks like a great alternative to Harden, if you don’t want to pay up or you’re looking to fade the field.
| Name | Pos | Salary | MPG | DK | DK/$1k | 5X% | 6X% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | SG | $11200 | 37.1 | 45.9 | 4.1 | 18.9% | 2.9% |
| Monta Ellis | SG | $6800 | 32.6 | 29.6 | 4.3 | 29.1% | 9.5% |
| Wesley Matthews | SG | $6300 | 35.1 | 22.7 | 3.6 | 9.5% | 1.2% |
| Danny Green | SG | $4000 | 32.6 | 19.8 | 5.0 | 49.5% | 25.0% |
| Jason Terry | SG | $3000 | 20.6 | 9.7 | 3.2 | 7.2% | 0.9% |
I’m not the biggest Trevor Ariza fan and it shows in this projection. I don’t see a ton of upside in Parsons or Batum, but they are certainly able to be rostered. Austin Daye is my sleeper to have a huge night. I expect him to come out gunning.
| Name | Pos | Salary | MPG | DK | DK/$1k | 5X% | 6X% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Ariza | SF | $7500 | 35.0 | 24.7 | 3.3 | 3.1% | 0.2% |
| Chandler Parsons | SF | $6900 | 32.6 | 23.9 | 3.5 | 8.2% | 0.8% |
| Nicolas Batum | SF | $6500 | 35.1 | 23.6 | 3.6 | 7.3% | 0.6% |
| Kawhi Leonard | SF | $5000 | 30.4 | 22.9 | 4.6 | 35.7% | 9.7% |
| Kostas Papanikolaou | SF | $4300 | 28.8 | 14.5 | 3.4 | 8.8% | 1.6% |
| Donatas Motiejunas | SF | $3400 | 20.6 | 12.6 | 3.7 | 15.3% | 3.4% |
| Austin Daye | SF | $3000 | 26.1 | 19.7 | 6.6 | 71.1% | 59.1% |
Take your pick on Aldridge and Dirk, or just take both. Similar value, but Aldridge has a bit higher upside. More Spurs fill out the rest of the value list, with Diaw in the mid-tier and Jeff Ayres at min-salary. With the minimum salary Spurs, it all depends on how the playing time breaks. Every single guy seems like a great play at my assumptions, but they need to get 20+ minutes for that to be correct. They should, due to the short bench, but anything can happen with Pop.
| Name | Pos | Salary | MPG | DK | DK/$1k | 5X% | 6X% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LaMarcus Aldridge | PF | $8800 | 35.1 | 39.1 | 4.4 | 35.9% | 12.3% |
| Dirk Nowitzki | PF | $7600 | 29.6 | 31.5 | 4.1 | 22.7% | 5.0% |
| Boris Diaw | PF | $4700 | 33.7 | 20.6 | 4.4 | 31.7% | 9.7% |
| Brandan Wright | PF | $4200 | 18.8 | 14.4 | 3.4 | 3.6% | 0.2% |
| Tarik Black | PF | $3000 | 20.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jeff Ayres | PF | $3000 | 27.1 | 18.2 | 6.1 | 83.0% | 51.9% |
Dwight is the obvious big play at Center tonight, but I think you can squeeze more value out of Kaman or Baynes, depending on how you handle the other positions. GPPs are going to be won and lost based on these min. salary guys tonight.
| Name | Pos | Salary | MPG | DK | DK/$1k | 5X% | 6X% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | C | $8700 | 34.0 | 37.2 | 4.3 | 23.2% | 4.5% |
| Robin Lopez | C | $5800 | 29.1 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyson Chandler | C | $5700 | 28.6 | 17.4 | 3.1 | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Chris Kaman | C | $3300 | 20.1 | 18.8 | 5.7 | 66.2% | 44.4% |
| Aron Baynes | C | $3000 | 27.1 | 19.4 | 6.5 | 69.0% | 56.8% |