Daily Fantasy Basketball Projections – November 11, 2014 – NBA DFS

I hope everyone was able to be successful in daily fantasy last night. My primary line-up did absolutely horrible, but I was still able to pull a profit because my backup lineup went HAM. That’s how it works some times. The wife has dinner plans so, I’ll be around all night for questions, so don’t be afraid to head to or to comment here. You can also contact me via the Twitter link in the header. DraftKings scoring system is the basis for these projections. If you haven’t played at DraftKings before, click the logo below to sign-up.

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Before I get started on the projections, I want to present last night’s actual results so they can be compared to the projections. In the table below, you’ll find each player that was projected last night, along with the information on whether he hit 5X or 6X value. Once every couple of days, I’ll post a table of how many guys are landing in particular buckets, say 5X chance between 20% and 30%, to make sure the sim is capturing the correct amount of people.

November 10 Results
Name Pos Salary pMPG pDK 5X% 6X% aMin aDK 5X? 6X?
Anthony Davis PF $11000 37.0 45.1 21.0% 5.0% 39.9 66.0 Y Y
LeBron James SF $10500 37.9 46.0 28.5% 7.6% 40.4 69.0 Y Y
Chris Paul PG $9800 34.9 42.4 29.6% 9.9% 38.6 39.5 N N
Blake Griffin PF $9400 34.9 40.1 29.0% 8.6% 37.2 46.5 N N
Kevin Love PF $9000 36.9 44.3 46.3% 20.9% 38.7 35.8 N N
Carmelo Anthony SF $8400 36.3 39.2 39.0% 18.1% 41.5 45.3 Y N
Pau Gasol PF $7900 33.5 35.8 32.8% 13.1% 35.3 52.8 Y Y
Gordon Hayward SG $7800 36.8 34.0 28.5% 10.9% 36.1 49.5 Y Y
Josh Smith SF $7600 34.7 34.7 35.0% 15.2% 38.6 45.3 Y N
Paul Millsap PF $7600 34.1 34.6 32.9% 15.1% 33.8 32.5 N N
Tyreke Evans SG $7500 36.0 35.3 43.7% 20.7% 30.5 27.5 N N
DeAndre Jordan C $7500 34.9 32.9 36.0% 16.0% 37.1 35.8 N N
Kyrie Irving PG $7400 39.0 39.0 53.0% 29.0% 40.6 53.3 Y Y
Tim Duncan PF $7400 31.9 37.0 50.1% 26.7% 35.6 39.3 Y N
Jrue Holiday PG $7300 36.0 34.2 41.8% 22.4% 37.0 29.3 N N
Al Horford C $7300 31.2 31.6 30.2% 12.2% 31.5 26.5 N N
Jeff Teague PG $7300 34.1 31.5 31.6% 12.8% 25.4 12.5 N N
Andre Drummond C $7200 27.8 29.7 22.5% 6.8% 36.5 19.5 N N
Derrick Favors PF $7100 32.6 32.0 33.8% 13.9% 34.8 28.5 N N
Roy Hibbert C $6900 30.3 28.1 23.9% 8.3% 33.3 40.8 Y N
Derrick Rose PG $6900 26.8 27.2 16.9% 5.0% 32.1 38.5 Y N
Greg Monroe PF $6800 30.7 31.1 35.8% 15.6% 35.7 31.5 N N
Joakim Noah C $6700 28.7 28.9 24.5% 9.0% 31.6 41.0 Y Y
Tony Parker PG $6300 30.9 29.1 41.9% 21.9% 33.9 24.5 N N
Jimmy Butler SG $6100 36.3 27.9 39.1% 20.3% 42.8 27.0 N N
Chris Copeland PF $6000 36.5 30.4 49.6% 31.2% 25.9 10.3 N N
Omer Asik C $5900 28.0 25.1 30.7% 14.1% 25.9 26.5 N N
Kawhi Leonard SF $5600 31.9 30.0 57.2% 37.2% 37.2 52.5 Y Y
Brandon Jennings PG $5600 29.8 28.4 44.6% 24.6% 27.3 34.3 Y Y
Alec Burks SG $5500 34.7 27.2 46.9% 27.7% 38.2 17.0 N N
Jamal Crawford SG $5400 29.9 26.8 51.8% 31.6% 38.4 16.8 N N
Kyle Korver SG $5200 34.1 24.6 43.8% 27.6% 33.3 31.5 Y Y
Ryan Anderson PF $5200 26.0 23.4 35.1% 16.6% 34.1 48.8 Y Y
Amar'e Stoudemire PF $5100 24.2 21.8 30.6% 14.4% 26.3 18.0 N N
Taj Gibson PF $5000 27.7 24.2 43.0% 23.6% 23.9 21.3 N N
DeMarre Carroll SF $5000 31.2 22.8 38.8% 23.0% 35.9 26.0 Y N
Enes Kanter C $4900 28.4 24.6 47.2% 27.4% 25.0 23.8 N N
Trey Burke PG $4900 28.4 22.5 39.6% 20.7% 35.6 24.0 N N
Donald Sloan PG $4900 35.5 22.3 41.3% 25.1% 28.9 9.8 N N
Anderson Varejao C $4700 29.7 26.9 61.0% 41.2% 21.9 24.8 Y N
Danny Green SG $4700 30.9 23.4 51.5% 33.1% 24.7 8.0 N N
Manu Ginobili SG $4500 26.8 27.0 68.6% 51.2% 24.8 21.0 N N
Eric Gordon SG $4500 33.0 24.2 57.5% 40.1% 31.9 17.8 N N
Iman Shumpert SG $4500 32.3 23.1 52.4% 36.1% 30.4 28.3 Y Y
Boris Diaw PF $4500 28.8 21.8 47.5% 30.3% 24.9 23.0 Y N
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG $4500 33.7 21.6 45.0% 30.7% 28.6 12.3 N N
J.J. Redick SG $4500 27.9 21.4 44.5% 28.5% 36.0 21.5 N N
Tristan Thompson PF $4500 23.6 18.7 31.3% 16.1% 25.9 18.5 N N
Luis Scola PF $4400 26.1 21.9 44.6% 26.7% 24.7 24.5 Y N
Mike Dunleavy SF $4400 26.8 18.9 33.5% 17.6% 35.1 17.0 N N
D.J. Augustin PG $4300 20.8 17.1 21.9% 9.6% 20.7 21.3 N N
Solomon Hill SF $4200 37.6 21.0 47.7% 34.9% 36.7 21.3 Y N
J.R. Smith SG $4000 27.2 21.7 54.7% 35.9% 27.2 18.8 N N
Lavoy Allen C $4000 21.9 17.8 29.9% 14.6% 27.3 40.8 Y Y
Caron Butler SF $3800 28.8 20.7 53.8% 38.1% 26.9 19.3 Y N
Shawn Marion SF $3700 26.7 19.1 53.3% 37.0% 30.1 17.0 N N
Dante Exum PG $3700 22.1 16.6 36.7% 21.0% 19.2 10.5 N N
Kirk Hinrich PG $3600 27.7 18.3 47.2% 32.1% 17.6 6.8 N N
Matt Barnes SF $3500 25.9 18.7 55.2% 38.6% 21.0 13.5 N N
Tim Hardaway SG $3400 26.2 17.8 51.5% 35.3% 22.4 20.3 Y N
Shane Larkin PG $3300 26.2 17.4 54.9% 39.5% 25.0 11.0 N N
Samuel Dalembert C $3300 20.2 17.1 53.7% 32.6% 16.1 7.3 N N
Austin Rivers PG $3000 21.0 14.2 44.4% 28.4% 19.7 14.5 N N
Mike Miller SF $3000 22.6 12.9 38.9% 25.1% 18.5 7.5 N N

***UPDATED AS OF 6:20PM. ASSUMING DUNCAN/GINOBILI DNP***

 
I’m not sure tonight is the night to play Stephen Curry. I like some of the other top end guys more, especially with his price tag. I think Damian Lillard deserves a good look. Reggie Jackson is a strong play, with the potential for a big night. Tony Parker, along with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Kawhi Leonard, seem to be breaking my projections. They are so efficient that it makes it seem like they have more upside than they do. Not to mention, their minutes fluctuate greatly because of Pop. I’m not as strong on these guys as it seems. It’s something to pay attention to down the line. C.J. McCollum should be able to grab a few of the extra minutes that won’t be taken up by Nic Batum. Might make a decent punt, until we find out more about what the Blazers are planning to do.

Point Guard Projections
Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Stephen Curry PG $10200 34.0 42.0 4.1 16.1% 1.2%
Kyle Lowry PG $8200 30.5 31.7 3.9 14.1% 2.5%
Kemba Walker PG $7800 32.9 30.8 3.9 18.3% 3.0%
Damian Lillard PG $7600 35.7 33.5 4.4 33.5% 11.2%
Brandon Knight PG $7300 31.1 27.5 3.8 13.0% 1.8%
Mike Conley PG $6900 27.6 26.1 3.8 16.1% 2.9%
Reggie Jackson PG $6500 38.8 33.6 5.2 55.3% 29.1%
Tony Parker PG $6400 35.2 34.9 5.5 62.6% 36.9%
Jeremy Lin PG $5500 30.5 26.4 4.8 45.9% 24.4%
Elfrid Payton PG $5500 30.6 25.4 4.6 39.8% 17.9%
Devin Harris PG $4600 22.3 19.3 4.2 28.5% 8.3%
Jameer Nelson PG $3900 26.3 22.4 5.7 66.3% 44.9%
Greivis Vasquez PG $3700 20.0 17.8 4.8 45.7% 21.7%
Jerryd Bayless PG $3500 22.1 16.8 4.8 46.6% 25.2%
Steve Blake PG $3000 20.8 14.3 4.8 45.7% 27.2%
Ramon Sessions PG $3000 26.4 21.6 7.2 79.9% 67.9%

 
Kobe Bryant should come out gunning again, making him the top SG of the night. I might take a flyer on Monta Ellis, but I think I’ll probably be sticking to the Courtney Lee/Jeremy Lamb duo. They are playing way too many minutes to be sitting at these prices.

Shooting Guard Projections
Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Kobe Bryant SG $8400 37.4 41.0 4.9 48.0% 17.1%
DeMar DeRozan SG $8100 32.4 29.8 3.7 11.6% 1.8%
Lance Stephenson SG $6700 33.9 26.9 4.0 22.2% 6.3%
Monta Ellis SG $6600 31.4 29.8 4.5 37.0% 11.9%
Klay Thompson SG $6500 30.1 25.4 3.9 21.9% 6.6%
Wesley Matthews SG $6100 32.7 24.4 4.0 23.6% 7.6%
Danny Green SG $5000 30.0 23.8 4.8 43.7% 20.7%
Evan Fournier SG $4900 32.5 24.9 5.1 51.1% 29.0%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SG $4700 25.1 18.8 4.0 19.8% 5.9%
Tony Allen SG $4400 22.2 17.4 4.0 22.2% 6.7%
Gary Neal SG $4200 26.1 18.5 4.4 34.8% 17.8%
Courtney Lee SG $4100 31.1 21.8 5.3 56.3% 38.5%
O.J. Mayo SG $4000 23.1 17.8 4.4 36.5% 17.1%
Jeremy Lamb SG $3900 37.8 30.3 7.8 85.0% 75.6%
Ben McLemore SG $3600 30.5 18.3 5.1 51.9% 36.3%
Nik Stauskas SG $3000 22.4 16.6 5.5 59.8% 41.3%

 
There’s a lot to like at SF tonight. Rudy Gay, Tobias Harris and Draymond Green all look solid. Regardless of how I think I’m overrating the Spurs, I think Kawhi still looks good at this price. While Wesley Johnson hasn’t been particularly good this season, he still is getting 35+ minutes per game. I think tonight could be a “break out” night for him. And when I say break out, I mean 25 fantasy points. I’ll take 6X+ however I can get it.

Small Forward Projections
Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Rudy Gay SF $7700 36.6 35.9 4.7 41.5% 17.1%
Tobias Harris SF $6900 35.4 32.1 4.7 39.5% 14.6%
Draymond Green SF $6200 32.1 28.1 4.5 37.2% 15.9%
Kawhi Leonard SF $5900 35.2 33.8 5.7 65.2% 43.0%
Chandler Parsons SF $5900 29.4 25.1 4.2 29.9% 11.3%
Terrence Ross SF $5000 25.7 18.4 3.7 17.6% 4.8%
Jabari Parker SF $4900 28.1 23.0 4.7 42.4% 18.9%
Andre Iguodala SF $4400 29.1 23.7 5.4 58.3% 36.9%
Harrison Barnes SF $4300 27.2 18.9 4.4 37.9% 18.7%
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF $4200 21.3 15.9 3.8 22.1% 7.6%
Marvin Williams SF $3900 26.1 18.5 4.7 43.2% 23.8%
Wesley Johnson SF $3300 33.4 22.8 6.9 79.0% 66.5%
Jared Dudley SF $3000 20.1 12.0 4.0 26.3% 11.3%
Austin Daye SF $3000 20.7 16.6 5.5 60.6% 42.9%
Tayshaun Prince SF $3000 22.2 12.6 4.2 35.0% 21.5%
Kyle Anderson SF $3000 25.9 19.3 6.4 71.9% 56.8%
Dorell Wright SF $3000 20.8 16.9 5.6 62.2% 41.8%

 
I’m liking Serge Ibaka a bit more than my projections say. Just a hunch. Jordan Hill and Channing Frye both look good in the middle tier. The sub-$4k PFs look great, though. I’ll be taking a hard look at Brandan Wright, Lance Thomas and Jason Thompson.

Power Forward Projections
Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
LaMarcus Aldridge PF $8800 35.7 38.0 4.3 25.0% 5.9%
Serge Ibaka PF $7400 35.7 34.3 4.6 36.9% 12.2%
Dirk Nowitzki PF $7300 29.4 31.7 4.3 27.1% 7.8%
Zach Randolph PF $7100 29.3 28.7 4.0 19.4% 4.6%
Jordan Hill PF $6500 31.5 31.7 4.9 47.3% 17.1%
Carlos Boozer PF $5300 28.5 26.7 5.0 51.7% 26.3%
Channing Frye PF $5200 30.6 24.0 4.6 42.2% 21.8%
Amir Johnson PF $5100 20.0 17.0 3.3 6.6% 1.1%
Boris Diaw PF $4600 29.0 22.4 4.9 45.6% 24.5%
Cody Zeller PF $4100 22.3 18.2 4.4 34.2% 14.0%
Ersan Ilyasova PF $4100 21.1 17.7 4.3 33.8% 13.1%
Patrick Patterson PF $3800 23.8 19.2 5.1 50.5% 29.0%
Brandan Wright PF $3500 20.3 19.3 5.5 62.7% 39.3%
Lance Thomas PF $3200 29.6 17.2 5.4 56.1% 40.5%
Jason Thompson PF $3100 29.5 21.7 7.0 77.7% 67.3%
Carl Landry PF $3000 22.4 18.4 6.1 68.5% 51.1%
Matt Bonner PF $3000 20.7 13.8 4.6 41.0% 25.0%

 
I’m really liking Al Jefferson at Center. I’ll probably have Cousins in one lineup, even though I don’t think his upside is as high tonight as it has been.

Center Projections
Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
DeMarcus Cousins C $9900 32.5 43.8 4.4 27.8% 6.4%
Al Jefferson C $8600 33.9 36.9 4.3 24.9% 5.5%
Nikola Vucevic C $8400 34.4 36.0 4.3 29.6% 9.4%
Marc Gasol C $7500 32.9 31.9 4.2 25.6% 7.6%
Robin Lopez C $6000 28.8 23.9 4.0 20.4% 4.8%
Tyson Chandler C $5900 30.4 25.9 4.4 33.8% 13.5%
Andrew Bogut C $5800 31.1 30.6 5.3 58.2% 29.6%
Jonas Valanciunas C $5500 23.8 21.6 3.9 18.9% 3.5%
Larry Sanders C $5400 22.1 21.1 3.9 17.4% 3.4%
Steven Adams C $4100 29.6 21.9 5.3 59.1% 37.6%
Nick Collison C $3000 24.5 16.3 5.4 57.9% 39.9%
Aron Baynes C $3000 25.9 20.3 6.8 73.6% 59.5%

 
Utility Projections

Name Pos Salary MPG DK DK/$1k 5X% 6X%
Stephen Curry PG $10200 34.0 42.0 4.1 16.1% 1.2%
DeMarcus Cousins C $9900 32.5 43.8 4.4 27.8% 6.4%
LaMarcus Aldridge PF $8800 35.7 38.0 4.3 25.0% 5.9%
Al Jefferson C $8600 33.9 36.9 4.3 24.9% 5.5%
Nikola Vucevic C $8400 34.4 36.0 4.3 29.6% 9.4%
Kobe Bryant SG $8400 37.4 41.0 4.9 48.0% 17.1%
Kyle Lowry PG $8200 30.5 31.7 3.9 14.1% 2.5%
DeMar DeRozan SG $8100 32.4 29.8 3.7 11.6% 1.8%
Kemba Walker PG $7800 32.9 30.8 3.9 18.3% 3.0%
Rudy Gay SF $7700 36.6 35.9 4.7 41.5% 17.1%
Damian Lillard PG $7600 35.7 33.5 4.4 33.5% 11.2%
Marc Gasol C $7500 32.9 31.9 4.2 25.6% 7.6%
Serge Ibaka PF $7400 35.7 34.3 4.6 36.9% 12.2%
Brandon Knight PG $7300 31.1 27.5 3.8 13.0% 1.8%
Dirk Nowitzki PF $7300 29.4 31.7 4.3 27.1% 7.8%
Zach Randolph PF $7100 29.3 28.7 4.0 19.4% 4.6%
Tobias Harris SF $6900 35.4 32.1 4.7 39.5% 14.6%
Mike Conley PG $6900 27.6 26.1 3.8 16.1% 2.9%
Lance Stephenson SG $6700 33.9 26.9 4.0 22.2% 6.3%
Monta Ellis SG $6600 31.4 29.8 4.5 37.0% 11.9%
Reggie Jackson PG $6500 38.8 33.6 5.2 55.3% 29.1%
Jordan Hill PF $6500 31.5 31.7 4.9 47.3% 17.1%
Klay Thompson SG $6500 30.1 25.4 3.9 21.9% 6.6%
Tony Parker PG $6400 35.2 34.9 5.5 62.6% 36.9%
Draymond Green SF $6200 32.1 28.1 4.5 37.2% 15.9%
Wesley Matthews SG $6100 32.7 24.4 4.0 23.6% 7.6%
Robin Lopez C $6000 28.8 23.9 4.0 20.4% 4.8%
Chandler Parsons SF $5900 29.4 25.1 4.2 29.9% 11.3%
Kawhi Leonard SF $5900 35.2 33.8 5.7 65.2% 43.0%
Tyson Chandler C $5900 30.4 25.9 4.4 33.8% 13.5%
Andrew Bogut C $5800 31.1 30.6 5.3 58.2% 29.6%
Jeremy Lin PG $5500 30.5 26.4 4.8 45.9% 24.4%
Elfrid Payton PG $5500 30.6 25.4 4.6 39.8% 17.9%
Jonas Valanciunas C $5500 23.8 21.6 3.9 18.9% 3.5%
Larry Sanders C $5400 22.1 21.1 3.9 17.4% 3.4%
Carlos Boozer PF $5300 28.5 26.7 5.0 51.7% 26.3%
Channing Frye PF $5200 30.6 24.0 4.6 42.2% 21.8%
Amir Johnson PF $5100 20.0 17.0 3.3 6.6% 1.1%
Terrence Ross SF $5000 25.7 18.4 3.7 17.6% 4.8%
Danny Green SG $5000 30.0 23.8 4.8 43.7% 20.7%
Evan Fournier SG $4900 32.5 24.9 5.1 51.1% 29.0%
Jabari Parker SF $4900 28.1 23.0 4.7 42.4% 18.9%
Giannis Antetokounmpo SG $4700 25.1 18.8 4.0 19.8% 5.9%
Devin Harris PG $4600 22.3 19.3 4.2 28.5% 8.3%
Boris Diaw PF $4600 29.0 22.4 4.9 45.6% 24.5%
Tony Allen SG $4400 22.2 17.4 4.0 22.2% 6.7%
Andre Iguodala SF $4400 29.1 23.7 5.4 58.3% 36.9%
Harrison Barnes SF $4300 27.2 18.9 4.4 37.9% 18.7%
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist SF $4200 21.3 15.9 3.8 22.1% 7.6%
Gary Neal SG $4200 26.1 18.5 4.4 34.8% 17.8%
Courtney Lee SG $4100 31.1 21.8 5.3 56.3% 38.5%
Steven Adams C $4100 29.6 21.9 5.3 59.1% 37.6%
Cody Zeller PF $4100 22.3 18.2 4.4 34.2% 14.0%
Ersan Ilyasova PF $4100 21.1 17.7 4.3 33.8% 13.1%
O.J. Mayo SG $4000 23.1 17.8 4.4 36.5% 17.1%
Marvin Williams SF $3900 26.1 18.5 4.7 43.2% 23.8%
Jameer Nelson PG $3900 26.3 22.4 5.7 66.3% 44.9%
Jeremy Lamb SG $3900 37.8 30.3 7.8 85.0% 75.6%
Patrick Patterson PF $3800 23.8 19.2 5.1 50.5% 29.0%
Greivis Vasquez PG $3700 20.0 17.8 4.8 45.7% 21.7%
Ben McLemore SG $3600 30.5 18.3 5.1 51.9% 36.3%
Brandan Wright PF $3500 20.3 19.3 5.5 62.7% 39.3%
Jerryd Bayless PG $3500 22.1 16.8 4.8 46.6% 25.2%
Wesley Johnson SF $3300 33.4 22.8 6.9 79.0% 66.5%
Lance Thomas PF $3200 29.6 17.2 5.4 56.1% 40.5%
Jason Thompson PF $3100 29.5 21.7 7.0 77.7% 67.3%
Nik Stauskas SG $3000 22.4 16.6 5.5 59.8% 41.3%
Steve Blake PG $3000 20.8 14.3 4.8 45.7% 27.2%
Jared Dudley SF $3000 20.1 12.0 4.0 26.3% 11.3%
Tayshaun Prince SF $3000 22.2 12.6 4.2 35.0% 21.5%
Matt Bonner PF $3000 20.7 13.8 4.6 41.0% 25.0%
Austin Daye SF $3000 20.7 16.6 5.5 60.6% 42.9%
Nick Collison C $3000 24.5 16.3 5.4 57.9% 39.9%
Ramon Sessions PG $3000 26.4 21.6 7.2 79.9% 67.9%
Aron Baynes C $3000 25.9 20.3 6.8 73.6% 59.5%
Carl Landry PF $3000 22.4 18.4 6.1 68.5% 51.1%
Kyle Anderson SF $3000 25.9 19.3 6.4 71.9% 56.8%
Dorell Wright SF $3000 20.8 16.9 5.6 62.2% 41.8%
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13 comments
    1. Not sure there’s a lot of upside in Ed Davis, but Dorell Wright should be an excellent punt option. He’ll be in my updated projections.

  1. Trying to decide between Jameer, Reggie, Sessions, Barbosa (if Klay is out), Lamb, and Lee for my PG, SG, G, and UTIL spots…any suggestions?

  2. Thanks for all the insight, it has really helped me. Any thoughts on this lineup?

    PG Stephen Curry

    PG Damian Lillard

    SG Courtney Lee

    SG C.J. McCollum

    SF Jeremy Lamb

    SF Draymond Green

    PF LaMarcus Aldridge

    PF Channing Frye

    C Marc Gasol

    1. I can’t speak too much to the lineup since its FanDuel, but I like everything buy McCollum. He’s not going to get as many minutes as I assumed this morning.

  3. Thanks a lot for your help man. I think I’m going with Reggie, Lamb, Gay, Aldridge, Cousins, Sessions, Kawhi, Lee.
    Thoughts? I think I’m definitely going Reggie/Lamb and one (or both) of Sessions/Lee

  4. In a GPP, how big of a deal is it to have a few guys on the same team. I have Gay, Cousins, and Sessions in some and Bogut, Curry in others and it feels like it cripples my chances.

    1. It’s not something I’ve ever looked in to, but I don’t avoid it. Depends on the positioning. I don’t mind having a PG/C combo or something, since they are generally doing different things, and in some cases, having complementary skills.

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