February 5, 2014 at 9:24 am

Bracket Calculus: Bracket Math for Smart People

Apparently, there was a new Bracket Math column written by Joe Lunardi on Monday that came in under my radar due to the dental issues. I was super excited to tear it apart, but I really don’t have too many issues with it. I’m going to assume that Lunardi has been one of the twenty people reading these posts and decided to just take my advice. That seems like the most logical scenario.

The top 12 looks pretty good. There’s only one major disagreement (he has Duke at 9, I have Duke  at 14). Considering I’m a Duke fan and I have them lower than he does, I’m fine with this. The rest of the teams in the top 12 are just a bit more jumbled, but everything looks OK. He’s making progress.

The first major disagreement is Kentucky. I’ve been over this before. If the season ended today, and you think Kentucky has the 13th best resume, you shouldn’t cover college basketball. Lunardi is judging the Wildcats based on their pre-season rank and where he thinks they will be in the future. Those are two things that should have zero bearing on seeding “if Selection Sunday were today.” Moving on…

I have Iowa 14 spots lower than he does, but his column came out before the Hawkeyes loss last night to Ohio St. I’ll assume they’ll drop in his next iteration and it’ll be more in line. Same goes for Oklahoma St. and the Iowa St. loss.

Louisville being #19 is my first major problem (besides Kentucky). EPW has Louisville ranked #33. This is a team that really only has one quality win; a January 18 game at Connecticut. There’s a gulf between that win and their next best win which was at home against SMU. On the flip side, they have some bad losses. Losing at home to Memphis was really bad and dropping last week’s game against Cincinnati at home didn’t help either. Even the neutral court game they lost to UNC is looking bad in hindsight. This team simply hasn’t done anything of value this season. That doesn’t mean they can’t get there. They can create some buzz with future games at Cincinnati, at Memphis and at SMU. Going 2-1 in those 3 games would give them a nice boost, which is why the end of season rankings say Louisville will be #19.

Here’s today’s Top 40:

top40 feb5

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